Deutsche Bank’s oil team is jumping into the swirling peak-oil debate, arguing that steep decline rates in existing oil fields will make it all but impossible for producers to break beyond a 100 million-barrel-a-day ceiling.
Peak or Plateau?
Their analysis puts the bank, long a big player in the oil patch, among a growing chorus who see the world hitting a production plateau of 100 million barrels a day within seven or eight years. The world is now consuming around 87 million barrels a day, but most institutional forecasts say that demand will top 100 million barrels a day by 2015.
The bank says that supply constraints could push the price of oil to $150 a barrel by 2010. The big question will be whether prices at that level will finally lead to a sharp break in demand, something that $100-a-barrel oil has yet to do.
Wall Street Journal
So what is the plan in the USA to get us off oil?
2 comments:
There is no plan because politicians can't sell to the public what we really need and stay in office. Everybody knows what needs to be done (generally speaking), but most are unwilling to make any changes in their lives. Especially when any level of effort or discomfort is involved.
It's funny looking back at this post now, in July, with oil prices at $145 a barrel, just 4 months after they predicted it would take 2 years to get there...
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